How Self-Driving Cars Will Change The World

I think a lot about self driving cars, also called “Autonomous Vehicles”. Most people think self driving cars will change the world like this:

Yes, our commutes will get better and our roads more efficient, allowing for a new urban sprawl, with people living farther away from their jobs, but the impact of self driving cars will be so much more profound.

First, let’s go through some of obvious changes that this new technology will have. For instance, self driving cars will drive much closer to each other allowing for 3 lanes to become 5. Or, take the mind-numbing exercise humans practice called “rubbernecking” when an accident does occur, which of course a computer won’t do. To be clear, I am not saying we won’t have accidents, just less often and far less severe.

Fatalities will become very rare, saving over 30,000 lives a year in the US alone, including the #1 cause of death for those 15–24. Let’s also consider the impact on other people not even in a car including over 5,000 pedestrian deaths, and almost 1,000 cycling deaths. Then there is also the tens of thousands of non-fatal pedestrian and cycling accidents. In a single decade, hundreds of thousands of people are killed and millions involved in serious accidents, and that’s just the US! Worldwide we’re looking at over a million people killed every single year. This causes a lot of people I know not to bike in urban areas, and when self driving cars are widely adopted, will cause more people to bike and walk regularly.

We will also see a dramatic reduction in cost in all industries involved in a human moving any item, whether that be pizza, uber or long distance trucking. Think about it, over 80% of the cost of your uber goes to a human who won’t be needed anymore (hence why Uber is a big player in the autonomous industry). All delivery fees will be cut to near nothing, allowing companies like Instacart and GrubHub to get you anything you want for a fraction the cost. Long distance trucking is another you’ll likely hear about, with big companies like Freightliner already testing prototypes. I don’t necessarily think we won’t have truck drivers, but instead their job will change, being tasked with more operations, like quality control and logistics.

Self driving cars will also be hugely beneficial for the elderly and disabled who have limited access to public services, transportation and delivery. The city itself will change with a lot with more parklets, walkable shopping districts and fewer gas stations.

Ok, now that we can all agree that goods, services and how people move around will change, let’s move on to the other billion dollar industries that will be completely disrupted.

Radio

Radio is a billion dollar industry that has weathered the tech revolution pretty well, especially compared to print. Unfortunately, the reason is that the vast majority of radio is listened to in the car, where people can’t use the technology that destroyed other media, like YouTube, Instagram and Buzzfeed. I suppose some people will read the newspaper on their way to work, as pictured above, but I suspect most will likely watch Netflix or YouTube, do email, check Instagram, hell we might even see specialized vehicles like working out or running on a treadmill in the car. Podcasting might do ok with more advanced media systems and Audio On-Demand services, but this will definitely hurt regular Radio as we think of it today.

Rental Cars

Can we all agree that renting a car is absolutely horrible? You just flew on a redeye and now you have to get in a bus to some rental car center, where you have to wait in a line and sign a bunch of contracts? Can we please just get to the hotel already? Everyone knows this pain and when the alternative is to simply go to the airport pick up area and get in your rented self driving car, why would you not do this? Now factor in that the car might be owned by someone who is on vacation, or lives miles away and doesn’t need it during the time you are using it. I don’t see Hertz or Alamo getting out of this alive. Additionally, the cairport drop off areas can get rather hectic and will need to be rethought.

Side Note: Will people own cars at all? I think in metro areas the answer is no, unless you’re really wealthy. As for rural areas, my current guess is that if you live over 15 minutes away from milk you’ll likely still own a car, but use Uber more than you do today…like when you’ve been drinking for instance.

Side Side Note: Can we also say how much bars are going to love this? Everyone can have that “one last drink” and not worry about getting a DUI.

Car Mechanics & Insurance

Pop quiz hotshot, how many car accidents were there in the US last year? Did you guess over 5,000,000? Congrats! You win a trip to the local auto mechanic, who will likely over-charge you and fix things you didn’t need fixing. Don’t worry your insurance (or hopefully the other person who caused it) will pay for it.

I asked a mechanic recently to break down the work they do. About half was “standard maintenance”, including wheel alignments, brakes, transmission, etc. The other half was “fender benders, body work, that sort of thing”. As we transition to self driving cars, we will also be transitioning to fully electric cars like the Model 3, which I predict more people will have their first autonomous experience in than any other car (there is a reason they are including the “Auto-Pilot” feature for free). Electric cars have fewer moving parts, less upkeep, and when combined with fewer accidents, car mechanics are going to have a tough road ahead.

Insurance will similarly be complicated. When your car gets into an accident, who is paying for the insurance? The self driving technology company like Google? The auto-manufactorer? It’s too early to know, but I doubt we’ll have our own esurance like we do today.

Side Note: I can’t recommend the blog WaitButWhy enough, but their Musk series is great. Check out the Telsa post.

Valet & Parking

As I mentioned above, people in urban markets will likely not own a car, but those in rural areas might. When they go into the city for a night out, they won’t valet their car. Either it will go park itself far away or they can put it into “Uber mode” and it will earn money for them while they are at dinner. Valet businesses will seem silly.

Similarly, parking structures in urban areas will need to be rethought. Structures like the Marina Towers in Chicago are ridiculous. The first 15+ floors in the middle of downtown are dedicated to parking. Surely we can do better.

Stadiums & Concert Venues

While we’re talking about parking, if a major city wants to build a new giant sports or concert venue, the first item always discussed is the huge amount of land “necessary” for parking. Instead, stadiums will be built with larger pick up/drop off areas (like airports mentioned above) with “tailgating” areas by the stadium and cars parked miles away.

Short Domestic Flights, RVs & Road Trips

Say tomorrow you need to go from San Francisco to Los Angeles. Your options are a quick flight, Amtrack (don’t get me started on the California High Speed train, which I helped raise money for), or 6 hour drive. As excited as I am about the Hyperloop, it is much more likely that in a few years we’ll get in our cars, toss back a few drinks, watch a movie or two, take a nap and then wake up to the waves in Santa Monica. The total door-to-door time for flying isn’t much more than driving. Let’s say I have a 2pm flight, I am going to leave my house at 12:30pm to get to the airport by 1pm. Take off at 2pm, land around 330 (hopefully, delays are rampant nowadays), find a cab and probably get there by 430 or 5pm, having to take two taxis and I don’t have a car now. Instead, get in your own car at 12:30pm and be there an hour or two later, with your own car.

The interior of the modern car is going to become more like your living room with great entertainment options and seats you can sleep in. Now think about how amazing the new RV’s will be. You’ll be able to take a real cross country trip with the whole family enjoying every moment. Wake up at Mt Rushmore, enjoy the whole day, go to bed and wake up in Yellowstone. I can’t wait for that.

Formula1 & Racing

I can’t say I’m the biggest racing fan, but a few of my friends and my father in law are really into Formula 1. It is amazing to hear them talk about the new electric Formula E. What happens when an autonomous car can out perform a race car driver? Will we see an Uber vs Google race and if they are faster than human drivers, is this the future of racing?

Ad Trucks/Mobile Billboards

Ok, hopefully at this point you’re agreeing with me that autonomous vehicles is about a lot more than just helping your commute. Now think about this ad trucks where 90% of the cost is paying a driver. Unless laws are passed, these kinds of ads will be running around the city constantly. Can we please ban these?

What Else?

What other industries can you think of that will be impacted by self driving cars? Please let me know, I would love for this post to grow over time.